La prochaine séance du séminaire des doctorant·e·s en économie et gestion d’USPN aura lieu le vendredi 28 novembre de 12h30 à 14h, en présentiel (Salle 2.023 – Campus Condorcet Bâtiment Sud) et en ligne (https://campus-condorcet.zoom.us/j/81679560651?pwd=fuSlyksZixZiErCU2ZtSqQo38Yy85n.1).
Matthieu Trichet y présentera son travail intitulé Developping countries exposure to nature related transition risks : the case of European Regulation on Deforestation-Free Product (EUDR)
Abstract : Deforestation is a pressing environmental concern, and agriculture and forestry are the main drivers of forest loss. As an answer to this, the European Commission has adopted a new regulation (EUDR) aiming at banning embodied deforestation from imports for a class of seven raw commodities and some of their derivatives. This regulation could have destabilizing effects for producing countries. This paper analyses the potential economic consequences of the EUDR as well as two other deforestation regulation scenarios on producing countries. We use an algorithm to trace distant physical flows and compute embodied deforestation in countrie’s import and calibrate an output shock in the form of a loss of output producing sectors. We then use an input-output model to compute both the direct and indirect effects on the producing countries to take into account supply chains effects. Overall, we find that the effects of the regulation on fighting deforestation could be quite limited in the most likely scenarios. Consequently, the economic effects are quite contained, suggesting that countries should not face significant losses as a consequence of this regulation. Nevertheless, most exposed countries are located in the Global South, so even small shocks can have destabilizing effects. The non-compliance case suggests that countries should pursue their efforts in setting proper governance capacities, and that it would be more cost-effective for the European Union to accompany them in developing effective diligence infrastructure rather than to compensate for expected total loss if they were unable to prove their product deforestation-free.